Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 (CHEERS II) statement: a validated Dutch translation.

OBJECTIVES: This study primarily aimed to develop a validated Dutch translation of the 28 items of the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) II. A secondary aim was to provide a worked example of a scientifically valid translation process. METHODS: A four-step process was applied: (1) forward translation, (2) backward translation, (3) quantitative validation (two back-translated English versions vs. original English version), and (4) qualitative validation (one Dutch version vs. original English version), resulting in the final Dutch CHEERS II checklist. RESULTS: During quantitative validation, the average scores indicated high language comparability (1.88 (SD 0.70); 1.70 (SD 0.73)) and interpretation similarity (1.77 (SD 0.81); 1.54 (SD 0.74)). Four items required formal revision. In the qualitative validation step, feedback primarily focused on specific terms 'outcomes,' 'benefits and harms,' '(year of) conversion,' 'any,' and 'characterizing.' CONCLUSION: Despite English being the common language of science, translating research instruments remains relevant to enhance clarity, accessibility, and inclusivity. The Dutch translation can be used by students, regulators, researchers, or others to report and evaluate reporting of economic evaluations. Our detailed description of the applied methodology can facilitate future translations of research instruments.

Benefits of a digital health technology for older nursing home residents. A de-novo cost-effectiveness model for digital health technologies to aid in the assessment of toileting and containment care needs.

The aim of this study was first, to introduce a comprehensive, de-novo health economic (HE) model incorporating the full range of activities involved in toileting and containment care (T&CC) for people with incontinence, capturing all the potential benefits and costs of existing and future Digital Health Technologies (DHT) aimed at improving continence care, for both residential care and home care. Second, to use this novel model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the DHT TENA SmartCare Identifi in the implementation of person-centred continence care (PCCC), compared with conventional continence care for Canadian nursing home residents. The de-novo HE model was designed to evaluate technologies across different care settings from the perspective of several stakeholders. Health states were based on six care need profiles with increasing need for toileting assistance, three care stages with varying degrees of toileting success, and five levels of skin health. The main outcomes were incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years. The effectiveness of the TENA SmartCare Identifi was based primarily on trial data combined with literature and expert opinion where necessary. Costs were reported in CAD 2020. After 2 years, 21% of residents in the DHT group received mainly toileting as their continence care strategy compared with 12% in the conventional care group. Conversely, with the DHT 15% of residents rely mainly on absorbent products for incontinence care, compared with 40% with conventional care. On average, residents lived for 2.34 years, during which the DHT resulted in a small gain in quality-adjusted life years of 0.015 and overall cost-savings of $1,467 per resident compared with conventional care. Most cost-savings were achieved through reduced costs for absorbent products. Since most, if not all, stakeholders gain from use of the DHT-assisted PCCC, widespread use in Canadian residential care facilities should be considered, and similar assessments for other countries encouraged.

Home Telemonitoring and a Diagnostic Algorithm in the Management of Heart Failure in the Netherlands: Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major health concern associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and reduced quality of life in patients. Home telemonitoring (HTM) facilitates frequent or continuous assessment of disease signs and symptoms, and it has shown to improve compliance by involving patients in their own care and prevent emergency admissions by facilitating early detection of clinically significant changes. Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are predictive mathematical relationships that make use of a wide range of collected data for calculating the likelihood of a particular event and use this output for prioritizing patients with regard to their treatment. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of HTM and a DA in the management of heart failure in the Netherlands. Three interventions were analyzed: usual care, HTM, and HTM plus a DA. METHODS: A previously published discrete event simulation model was used. The base-case analysis was performed according to the Dutch guidelines for economic evaluation. Sensitivity, scenario, and value of information analyses were performed. Particular attention was given to the cost-effectiveness of the DA at various levels of diagnostic accuracy of event prediction and to different patient subgroups. RESULTS: HTM plus the DA extendedly dominates HTM alone, and it has a deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with usual care of €27,712 (currency conversion rate in purchasing power parity at the time of study: €1=US $1.29; further conversions are not applicable in cost-effectiveness terms) per quality-adjusted life year. The model showed robustness in the sensitivity and scenario analyses. HTM plus the DA had a 96.0% probability of being cost-effective at the appropriate €80,000 per quality-adjusted life year threshold. An optimal point for the threshold value for the alarm of the DA in terms of its cost-effectiveness was estimated. New York Heart Association class IV patients were the subgroup with the worst cost-effectiveness results versus usual care, while HTM plus the DA was found to be the most cost-effective for patients aged <65 years and for patients in New York Heart Association class I. CONCLUSIONS: Although the increased costs of adopting HTM plus the DA in the management of heart failure may seemingly be an additional strain on scarce health care resources, the results of this study demonstrate that, by increasing patient life expectancy by 1.28 years and reducing their hospitalization rate by 23% when compared with usual care, the use of this technology may be seen as an investment, as HTM plus the DA in its current form extendedly dominates HTM alone and is cost-effective compared with usual care at normally accepted thresholds in the Netherlands.

Real-world evidence in health technology assessment of high-risk medical devices: Fit for purpose?

Health technology assessment (HTA) of medical devices (MDs) increasingly rely on real-world evidence (RWE). The aim of this study was to evaluate the type and the quality of the evidence used to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of high risk MDs (Class III) by HTA agencies in Europe (four European HTA agencies and EUnetHTA), with particular focus on RWE. Data were extracted from HTA reports on the type of evidence demonstrating (cost-)effectiveness, and the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness using the Good Research for Comparative Effectiveness principles. 25 HTA reports were included that incorporated 28 observational studies of comparative effectiveness. Half of the studies (46%) took important confounding and/or effect modifying variables into account in the design and/or analyses. The most common way of including confounders and/or effect modifiers was through multivariable regression analysis. Other methods, such as propensity score matching, were rarely employed. Furthermore, meaningful analyses to test key assumptions were largely omitted. Resulting recommendations from HTA agencies on MDs is therefore (partially) based on evidence which is riddled with uncertainty. Considering the increasing importance of RWE it is important that the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness are systematically assessed when used in decision-making.

Being Transparent About Brilliant Failures: An Attempt to Use Real-World Data in a Disease Model for Patients with Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Real-world disease models spanning multiple treatment lines can provide insight into the (cost) effectiveness of treatment sequences in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to explore whether a disease model based solely on real-world data (RWD) could be used to estimate the effectiveness of treatments for patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) that could then be suitably used in a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: We developed a patient-level simulation model using patient-level data from the Dutch CAPRI registry as input parameters. Time to event (TTE) and overall survival (OS) were estimated with multivariate regression models, and type of event (i.e., next treatment or death) was estimated with multivariate logistic regression models. To test internal validity, TTE and OS from the simulation model were compared with the observed outcomes in the registry. RESULTS: Although patient characteristics and survival outcomes of the simulated data were comparable to those in the observed data (median OS 20.6 vs. 19.8 months, respectively), the disease model was less accurate in estimating differences between treatments (median OS simulated vs. observed population: 18.6 vs. 17.9 [abiraterone acetate plus prednisone], 24.0 vs. 25.0 [enzalutamide], 20.2 vs. 18.7 [docetaxel], and 20.0 vs. 23.8 months [radium-223]). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the disease model accurately approximated the observed data in the total CRPC population. However, the disease model was unable to predict differences in survival between treatments due to unobserved differences. Therefore, the model is not suitable for cost-effectiveness analysis of CRPC treatment. Using a combination of RWD and data from randomised controlled trials to estimate treatment effectiveness may improve the model.

Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses comparing combinations of urate lowering therapy and anti-inflammatory treatment in gout patients.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of various combinations of urate lowering therapy (ULT) and anti-inflammatory treatment in the management of newly diagnosed gout patients, from the Dutch societal perspective. METHODS: A probabilistic patient-level simulation estimating costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) comparing gout and hyperuricemia treatment strategies was performed. ULT options febuxostat, allopurinol and no ULT were considered. Flare treatments naproxen, colchicine, prednisone, and anakinra were considered. A Markov Model was constructed to simulate gout disease. Health states were no flare, and severe pain, mild pain, moderate pain, or no pain in the presence of a flare. Model input was derived from patient level clinical trial data, meta-analyses or from previously published health-economic evaluations. The results of probabilistic sensitivity analyses were presented using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and summarized using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs). Scenario analyses were performed. RESULTS: The ICER for allopurinol versus no ULT was €1,381, when combined with naproxen. Febuxostat yielded the highest utility, but also the highest costs (€4,385 vs. €4,063 for allopurinol), resulting in an ICER of €25,173 when compared to allopurinol. No ULT was not cost-effective, yielding the lowest utility. For the gout flare medications, comparable effects on utility were achieved. Combined with febuxostat, naproxen was the cheapest option (€4,404), and anakinra the most expensive (€4,651). The ICER of anakinra compared to naproxen was €818,504. Colchicine and prednisone were dominated by naproxen. CONCLUSION: Allopurinol and febuxostat were both cost-effective compared to No ULT. Febuxostat was cost-effective in comparison with allopurinol at higher willingness-to-pay thresholds. For treating gout flares, colchicine, naproxen and prednisone offered comparable health economic implications, although naproxen was the favoured option.

Modeling Early Warning Systems: Construction and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: Developing and validating a discrete event simulation model that is able to model patients with heart failure managed with usual care or an early warning system (with or without a diagnostic algorithm) and to account for the impact of individual patient characteristics in their health outcomes. METHODS: The model was developed using patient-level data from the Trans-European Network - Home-Care Management System study. It was coded using RStudio Version 1.3.1093 (version 3.6.2.) and validated along the lines of the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models tool. The model includes 20 patient and disease characteristics and generates 8 different outcomes. Model outcomes were generated for the base-case analysis and used in the model validation. RESULTS: Patients managed with the early warning system, compared with usual care, experienced an average increase of 2.99 outpatient visits and a decrease of 0.02 hospitalizations per year, with a gain of 0.81 life years (0.45 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average total costs of €11 249. Adding a diagnostic algorithm to the early warning system resulted in a 0.92 life year gain (0.57 quality-adjusted life years) and increased average costs of €9680. These patients experienced a decrease of 0.02 outpatient visits and 0.65 hospitalizations per year, while they avoided being hospitalized 0.93 times. The model showed robustness and validity of generated outcomes when comparing them with other models addressing the same problem and with external data. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and validated a unique patient-level simulation model that can be used for simulating a wide range of outcomes for different patient subgroups and treatment scenarios. It provides useful information for guiding research and for developing new treatment options by showing the hypothetical impact of these interventions on a large number of important heart failure outcomes.

Avatrombopag and lusutrombopag for thrombocytopenia in people with chronic liver disease needing an elective procedure: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: There have been no licensed treatment options in the UK for treating thrombocytopenia in people with chronic liver disease requiring surgery. Established management largely involves platelet transfusion prior to the procedure or as rescue therapy for bleeding due to the procedure. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two thrombopoietin receptor agonists, avatrombopag (Doptelet®; Dova Pharmaceuticals, Durham, NC, USA) and lusutrombopag (Mulpleta®; Shionogi Inc., London, UK), in addition to established clinical management compared with established clinical management (no thrombopoietin receptor agonist) in the licensed populations. DESIGN: Systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING: Secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Severe thrombocytopenia (platelet count of < 50,000/µl) in people with chronic liver disease requiring surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Lusutrombopag 3 mg and avatrombopag (60 mg if the baseline platelet count is < 40,000/µl and 40 mg if it is 40,000-< 50,000/µl). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of platelet transfusion and rescue therapy or risk of rescue therapy only. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic review including meta-analysis. English-language and non-English-language articles were obtained from several databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, all searched from inception to 29 May 2019. ECONOMIC EVALUATION: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. RESULTS: From a comprehensive search retrieving 11,305 records, six studies were included. Analysis showed that avatrombopag and lusutrombopag were superior to no thrombopoietin receptor agonist in avoiding both platelet transfusion and rescue therapy or rescue therapy only, and mostly with a statistically significant difference (i.e. 95% confidence intervals not overlapping the point of no difference). However, only avatrombopag seemed to be superior to no thrombopoietin receptor agonist in reducing the risk of rescue therapy, although far fewer patients in the lusutrombopag trials than in the avatrombopag trials received rescue therapy. When assessing the cost-effectiveness of lusutrombopag and avatrombopag, it was found that, despite the success of these in avoiding platelet transfusions prior to surgery, the additional long-term gain in quality-adjusted life-years was very small. No thrombopoietin receptor agonist was clearly cheaper than both lusutrombopag and avatrombopag, as the cost savings from avoiding platelet transfusions were more than offset by the drug cost. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that, for all thresholds below £100,000, no thrombopoietin receptor agonist had 100% probability of being cost-effective. LIMITATIONS: Some of the rescue therapy data for lusutrombopag were not available. There were inconsistencies in the avatrombopag data. From the cost-effectiveness point of view, there were several additional important gaps in the evidence required, including the lack of a price for avatrombopag. CONCLUSIONS: Avatrombopag and lusutrombopag were superior to no thrombopoietin receptor agonist in avoiding both platelet transfusion and rescue therapy, but they were not cost-effective given the lack of benefit and increase in cost. FUTURE WORK: A head-to-head trial is warranted. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019125311. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 51. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Thrombocytopenia, which is a reduction in platelet numbers in the blood, is a common complication of chronic liver disease. It increases the risk of bleeding during procedures including liver biopsy and transplantation. It can delay or prevent procedures, leading to illness and death. Established treatment largely involves platelet transfusion before the procedure or as rescue therapy for bleeding. This report aims to systematically review the clinical effectiveness and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the first two recently licensed treatments, thrombopoietin receptor agonists avatrombopag (Doptelet^®; Dova Pharmaceuticals, Durham, NC, USA) (60 mg if platelet count is < 40,000/µl and 40 mg if platelet count is 40,000­< 50,000/µl) and lusutrombopag (Mulpleta^®; Shionogi Inc., London, UK) (3 mg if platelet count is < 50,000/µl), compared with established treatment. From a comprehensive search, six studies were included. Clinical effectiveness analysis showed that avatrombopag and lusutrombopag were superior to no thrombopoietin receptor agonist in avoiding both platelet transfusion and rescue therapy. Only avatrombopag seemed superior to no thrombopoietin receptor agonist in reducing rescue therapy alone. Cost-effectiveness analysis found that lusutrombopag and avatrombopag were more expensive than no thrombopoietin receptor agonist over a lifetime, as the savings from avoiding platelet transfusions were exceeded by the drug cost, and without long-term health benefits. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis, which examined the effect of uncertainty, showed that no thrombopoietin receptor agonist had 100% probability of being cost-effective. Uncertainty about the price of avatrombopag and the content and costs of platelet transfusions and the potential under-reporting of use to estimate platelet transfusion-specific mortality had the greatest impact on results. If the price of avatrombopag was (confidential information has been removed) below the price of lusutrombopag, avatrombopag would become cost saving in the 40,000­< 50,000/µl subgroup. However, although in some scenarios avatrombopag costs could decrease in the 40,000­< 50,000/µl subgroup to around 10% more than the cost of no thrombopoietin receptor agonist, there would be negligible health benefits and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios would remain very high, meaning that lusutrombopag and avatrombopag would still not be considered cost-effective.

Impact of hospitalisation on health-related quality of life in patients with chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Empirical identification of the direct impact of hospitalisation in the change in utility could provide an interpretation for some of the unexplained variance in quality of life responses in clinical practice and clinical trials and provide assistance to researchers in assessing the impact of a hospitalisation in the context of economic evaluations. This study had the goal of determining the impact of nonfatal hospitalisations on the quality of life of a cohort of patients previously diagnosed with heart failure by using their quality of life measurements before and after hospitalisation. METHODS: The impact of hospitalisation on health-related quality of life was estimated by calculating the difference in utility measured using the EQ-5D-3L in patients that were hospitalised and had records of utility before and after hospitalisation. The variation in differences between the utilities pre and post hospitalisation was explained through two multiple linear regression models using (1) the individual patient characteristics and (2) the hospitalisation characteristics as explanatory variables. RESULTS: The mean difference between health-related quality of life measurement pre and post hospitalisation was found to be 0.020 [95% CI: - 0.020, 0.059] when measured with the EQ-5D index, while there was a mean decrease of - 0.012 [95% CI: - 0.043, 0.020] in the utility measured with the visual analogue scale. Differences in utility variation according to the primary cause for hospitalisation were found. Regression models showed a statistically significant impact of body mass index and serum creatinine in the index utility differences and of serum creatinine for utilities measured with the visual analogue scale. CONCLUSIONS: Knowing the impact of hospitalisation on health-related quality of life is particularly relevant for informing cost-effectiveness studies designed to assess health technologies aimed at reducing hospital admissions. Through using patient-level data it was possible to estimate the variation in utilities before and after the average hospitalisation and for hospitalisations due to the most common causes for hospital admission. These estimates for (dis) utility could be used in the calculations of effectiveness on economic evaluations, especially when discrete event simulations are the employed modelling technique.

Quo Vadis HTA for Medical Devices in Central and Eastern Europe? Recommendations to Address Methodological Challenges.

Objectives: Methodological challenges in the evaluation of medical devices (MDs) may be different for early and late technology adopter countries, as well as the potential health technology assessment (HTA) solutions to tackle them. This study aims to provide guidance to Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries on how to address key challenges of HTA for MDs with special focus on the transferability of scientific evidence. Methods: As part of the COMED Horizon 2020 project, a comprehensive list of issues related to MD HTA were identified based on a targeted literature review. Health technology assessment issues which pose a greater challenge or require different solutions in late technology adopter countries were selected. Draught recommendations to address these issues were developed and discussed in a focus group. The recommendations were then validated with a wider group of experts, including HTA and reimbursement decision makers from CEE countries in May and June 2020. Results: A consolidated list of 11 recommendations were developed in 3 major areas: (1) clinical value assessment, focusing on the use of joint EU work, relying on real-world evidence, use of coverage with evidence development schemes, transferring evidence from foreign countries and addressing the challenges of learning curve and centre effect; (2) economic value assessment, covering cost calculation of complex medical devices and transferability of economic evaluations of MDs; (3) HTA processes, related to the frequent product modifications and various indications of MDs. Conclusions: Central and Eastern European countries with limited resources for conducting HTA, can benefit from HTA methods and evidence generated in early technology adopter countries. Considering the appropriate reuse of international HTA materials, late technology adopter countries can still implement HTA, even for MDs, which have a more limited evidence base compared with pharmaceuticals.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line EGFR-TKIs in patients with non-small cell lung cancer harbouring EGFR mutations.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the cost-effectiveness of first-line gefitinib, erlotinib, afatinib, and osimertinib in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harbouring epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations. METHODS: A systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted to compare the relative efficacy of gefitinib, erlotinib, afatinib, and osimertinib in EGFR-mutated NSCLC. To assess the cost-effectiveness of these treatments, a Markov model was developed from Dutch societal perspective. The model was based on the clinical studies included in the NMA. Incremental costs per life-year (LY) and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained were estimated. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted. RESULTS: Total discounted per patient costs for gefitinib, erlotinib, afatinib, and osimertinib were €65,889, €64,035, €69,418, and €131,997, and mean QALYs were 1.36, 1.39, 1.52, and 2.01 per patient, respectively. Erlotinib dominated gefitinib. Afatinib versus erlotinib yielded incremental costs of €27,058/LY and €41,504/QALY gained. Osimertinib resulted in €91,726/LY and €128,343/QALY gained compared to afatinib. PSA showed that gefitinib, erlotinib, afatinib, and osimertinib had 13%, 19%, 43%, and 26% probability to be cost-effective at a threshold of €80,000/QALY. A price reduction of osimertinib of 30% is required for osimertinib to be cost-effective at a threshold of €80,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Osimertinib has a better effectiveness compared to all other TKIs. However, at a Dutch threshold of €80,000/QALY, osimertinib appears not to be cost-effective.

TECH-VER: A Verification Checklist to Reduce Errors in Models and Improve Their Credibility.

BACKGROUND: In health economic literature, checklists or best practice recommendations on model validation/credibility always declare verification of the programmed model as a fundamental step, such as 'is the model implemented correctly and does the implementation accurately represent the conceptual model?' However, to date, little operational guidance for the model verification process has been given. In this study, we aimed to create an operational checklist for model users or reviewers to verify the technical implementation of health economic decision analytical models and document their verification efforts. METHODS: Literature on model validation, verification, programming errors and credibility was reviewed systematically from scientific databases. An initial beta version of the checklist was developed based on the checklists/tests identified from the literature and from authors' previous modeling/appraisal experience. Next, the first draft checklist was presented to a number of health economists on several occasions and was tested on different models (built in different software, developed by different stakeholders, including drug manufacturers, consultancies or academia), each time leading to an update of the checklist and culminating in the final version of the TECHnical VERification (TECH-VER) checklist, introduced in this paper. RESULTS: The TECH-VER necessitates a model reviewer (preferably independent), an executable and transparent model, its input sources, and detailed documentation (e.g. technical report/scientific paper) in which the conceptual model, its implementation, programmed model inputs, and results are reported. The TECH-VER checklist consists of five domains: (1) input calculations; (2) event-state (patient flow) calculations; (3) result calculations; (4) uncertainty analysis calculations; and (5) other overall checks (e.g. validity or interface). The first four domains reflect the verification of the components of a typical health economic model. For these domains, as a prerequisite of verification tests, the reviewer should identify the relevant calculations in the electronic model and assess the provided justifications for the methods used in the identified calculations. For this purpose, we recommend completeness/consistency checks. Afterwards, the verification tests can be conducted for the calculations in each of these stages by checking the correctness of the implementation of these calculations. For this purpose, the following type of tests are recommended in consecutive order: (i) black-box tests, i.e. checking if model calculations are in line with a priori expectations; (ii) white-box testing, i.e. going through the program code details line by line, or cell by cell (recommended for some crucial calculations and if there are some unexpected results from the black-box tests); and (iii) model replication/parallel programming (recommended only in certain situations, and if the issues related to the identified unexpected results from black-box tests could not be resolved through white-box testing). To reduce the time burden of model verification, we suggest a hierarchical order in tests i-iii, where going to the next step is necessary when the previous step fails. CONCLUSIONS: The TECH-VER checklist is a comprehensive checklist for the technical verification of decision analytical models, aiming to help identify model implementation errors and their root causes while improving the transparency and efficiency of the verification efforts. In addition to external reviews, we consider that the TECH-VER can be used as an internal training and quality control tool for new health economists, while developing their initial models. It is the authors' aim that the TECH-VER checklist transforms itself to an open-source living document, with possible future versions, or 'bolt-on' extensions for specific applications with additional 'fit-for-purpose' tests, as well as 'tips and tricks' and some demonstrative error examples. For this reason, the TECH-VER checklist and the list of black-box tests created in this paper and a few model verification examples is uploaded to an open access, online platform (github and the website of the institute), where other users will also be able to upload their original verification efforts and tests.

Phase I/II Clinical Trial-Based Early Economic Evaluation of Acalabrutinib for Relapsed Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to construct an early economic evaluation for acalabrutinib for relapsed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) to assist early reimbursement decision making. Scenarios were assessed to find the relative impact of critical parameters on incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). METHODS: A partitioned survival model was constructed comparing acalabrutinib and ibrutinib from a UK national health service perspective. This model included states for progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS) and death. PFS and overall survival (OS) were parametrically extrapolated from ibrutinib publications and a preliminary hazard ratio based on phase I/II data was applied for acalabrutinib. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed, and 1296 scenarios were assessed. RESULTS: The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £61,941/QALY, with 3.44 incremental QALYs and incremental costs of £213,339. Deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that survival estimates, utilities and treatment costs of ibrutinib and acalabrutinib and resource use during PFS have the greatest influence on the ICER. Probabilistic results under different development scenarios indicated that greater efficacy of acalabrutinib would decrease the likelihood of cost effectiveness (from 63% at no effect to 2% at maximum efficacy). Scenario analyses showed that a reduction in PFS did not lead to great QALY differences (- 8 to - 14% incremental QALYs) although it did greatly affect costs (- 47 to - 122% incremental pounds). For OS, the opposite was true (- 89 to - 93% QALYs and - 7 to - 39% pounds). CONCLUSIONS: Acalabrutinib is not likely to be cost effective compared with ibrutinib under current development scenarios. The conflicting effects of OS, PFS, drug costs and utility during PFS show that determining the cost effectiveness of acalabrutinib without insight into all parameters complicates health technology assessment decision making. Early assessment of the cost effectiveness of new products can support development choices and reimbursement processes through effective early dialogues between stakeholders.

First-line tyrosine kinase inhibitors in EGFR mutation-positive non-small-cell lung cancer: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) including afatinib, dacomitinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and osimertinib have proven efficacy in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring EGFR mutations. However, an overall view for comparing efficacy and toxicity on a meta-level is lacking. This study compared efficacy and toxicity of first-line treatment with five different EGFR-TKIs by conducting a network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: A systematic review was performed, aiming to find eligible literature. Data of PFS, overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), and adverse events were extracted. An NMA based on Bayesian statistics was established to synthesize the efficacy and toxicity of all treatments. RESULTS: Thirteen randomized controlled trials, including data from 3,539 patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC, were analyzed. Rank probabilities showed that osimertinib had a potentially better efficacy in terms of PFS and OS compared to all other TKIs. For ORR, afatinib and osimertinib showed a trend of superiority compared to the other four TKIs. Furthermore, there was a high risk of diarrhea and rash for patients treated with afatinib or dacomitinib as well as a moderate risk for treatment with erlotinib, gefitinib, and osimertinib. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a favorable efficacy of osimertinib in terms of PFS and OS compared to all other EGFR-TKIs in patients with NSCLC harboring activating EGFR mutations. Furthermore, gefitinib, erlotinib, and osimertinib were associated with fewer toxicities compared to the other TKIs. Therefore, osimertinib is indicated as a preferable first-line TKI in patients with activating EGFR-mutated NSCLC.

Ribociclib with an Aromatase Inhibitor for Previously Untreated, HR-Positive, HER2-Negative, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, as part of the institute's single technology appraisal process, invited the manufacturer of ribociclib (Kisqali®, Novartis) to submit evidence regarding the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug in combination with an aromatase inhibitor for the treatment of previously untreated, hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd and Erasmus University Rotterdam were commissioned as the Evidence Review Group for this submission. The Evidence Review Group reviewed the evidence submitted by the manufacturer, corrected and validated the manufacturer's decision analytic model, and conducted exploratory analyses to assess the robustness and validity of the presented clinical and cost-effectiveness results. This article describes the company submission, the Evidence Review Group assessment and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence subsequent decisions. The main clinical effectiveness evidence was obtained from the MONALEESA-2 trial, a randomised controlled trial comparing ribociclib plus letrozole with placebo plus letrozole. Progression-free survival was significantly longer in the ribociclib group (95% confidence interval, 19.3-not reached) vs. 14.7 months (95% confidence interval 13.0-16.5) in the placebo group. To assess the cost effectiveness of ribociclib in combination with an aromatase inhibitor, the company developed an individual patient-level model using a discrete-event simulation approach in Microsoft® Excel. In the model, simulated patients move through a series of three health states until death, i.e. first-line progression-free survival, second-line progression-free survival and progressive disease. The length of progression-free survival during the first line was informed by the MONALEESA-2 trial. The benefit in progression-free survival in the first line was transferred to a benefit in overall survival assuming full progression-free survival to overall survival surrogacy (because of the immaturity of overall survival data from the MONALEESA-2 trial). Patient-level data from the BOLERO-2 trial, evaluating the addition of everolimus to exemestane in the second-line treatment of postmenopausal HR-positive advanced breast cancer, were used to inform the length of progression-free survival during the second line. Costs included in the model were treatment costs (e.g. technology acquisition costs of first, second, third and/or later line treatments), drug administration costs, monitoring costs and health state costs (including terminal care). Additionally, the costs of adverse events associated with the first-line treatment were incorporated. The Evidence Review Group recalculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio using data from a different data cut-off date from the MONALEESA-2 trial and by changing some assumptions (e.g. progression-free survival to overall survival surrogacy approach and post-progression third and/or later line treatment-related costs). After two appraisal committee meetings and a revised base case submitted by the company (including a second enhanced patient access scheme discount), the committee concluded that taking into account the uncertainties in the calculation of the cost effectiveness, there were plausible cost-effectiveness estimates broadly in the range that could be considered as a cost-effective use of National Health Service resources. Therefore, ribociclib was recommended as a treatment option for the first-line treatment of hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer, contingent on the company providing ribociclib with the discount agreed in the second enhanced patient access scheme.

Conceptual model for the health technology assessment of current and novel interventions in rheumatoid arthritis.

The objective of this study was to evaluate current approaches to economic modeling in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and propose a new conceptual model for evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of RA interventions. We followed recommendations from the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research-Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-2. The process involved scoping the decision problem by a working group and drafting a preliminary cost-effectiveness model framework. A systematic literature review (SLR) of existing decision-analytic models was performed and analysis of an RA registry was conducted to inform the structure of the draft conceptual model. Finally, an expert panel was convened to seek input on the draft conceptual model. The proposed conceptual model consists of three separate modules: 1) patient characteristic module, 2) treatment module, and 3) outcome module. Consistent with the scope, the conceptual model proposed six changes to current economic models in RA. These changes proposed are to: 1) use composite measures of disease activity to evaluate treatment response as well as disease progression (at least two measures should be considered, one as the base case and one as a sensitivity analysis); 2) conduct utility mapping based on disease activity measures; 3) incorporate subgroups based on guideline-recommended prognostic factors; 4) integrate realistic treatment patterns based on clinical practice/registry datasets; 5) assimilate outcomes that are not joint related (extra-articular outcomes); and 6) assess mortality based on disease activity. We proposed a conceptual model that incorporates the current understanding of clinical and real-world evidence in RA, as well as of existing modeling assumptions. The proposed model framework was reviewed with experts and could serve as a foundation for developing future cost-effectiveness models in RA.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Abatacept Compared with Adalimumab on Background Methotrexate in Biologic-Naive Adult Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis and Poor Prognosis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess cost effectiveness of abatacept versus adalimumab, each administered with methotrexate, in treating patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) stratified according to baseline anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) levels (marker of poor prognosis in RA). METHODS: A payer-perspective cost-effectiveness model simulated disease progression in patients with RA who had previously failed conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and were starting biologic therapy. Patients commenced treatment with abatacept or adalimumab plus methotrexate and were evaluated after 6 months. Therapy continuation was based on the European League Against Rheumatism treatment response; disease progression was based on the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index score. These score changes were used to estimate health state utilities and direct medical costs. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost per QALY gained were calculated by baseline ACPA groups (Q1, 28-234 AU/ml; Q2, 235-609 AU/ml; Q3, 613-1045 AU/ml; and Q4, 1060-4894 AU/ml). Scenario analysis and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate robustness of model assumptions. RESULTS: Abatacept resulted in QALY gain versus adalimumab in ACPA Q1, Q3, and Q4; between-treatment difference (difference: Q1, -0.115 Q2, -0.009 Q3, 0.045; and Q4, 0.279). Total lifetime discounted cost was higher for abatacept versus adalimumab in most quartiles (Q2, £77,612 vs. £77,546; Q3, £74,441 vs. £73,263; and Q4, £78,428 vs. £76,696) because of longer time on treatment. Incremental cost per QALY for abatacept (vs. adalimumab) was the lowest in the high ACPA titer group (Q4, £6200/QALY), followed by the next lowest titer group (Q3, £26,272/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Abatacept is a cost effective alternative to adalimumab in patients with RA with high ACPA levels.

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios.

BACKGROUND: In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population. METHODS: We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion. RESULTS: Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592-2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and affected elderly, and a reduction in time invested by carers. Various realistic policy scenarios even forecast larger health gains and cost-savings in the future. More importantly, the longer the implementation is postponed the larger the savings foregone. The future organisation of healthcare affects the category in which the greatest savings will be generated.

Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

INTRODUCTION: Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. AREAS COVERED: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. EXPERT COMMENTARY: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.